PayPal Issues Impressive Guidance Update

When it comes to the long-term growth potential of a company, one of the most important details for investors to know is just how big the company’s potential market is. At its investor day event in San Francisco on Thursday, PayPal Holdings Inc (Nasdaq: PYPL ) management said the company’s global total addressable market (TAM) could ultimately be an eye-popping $110 trillion, and analysts say that number is more than enough for PayPal to thrive.

PayPal management’s TAM estimate includes all global online and offline sales, cross-border payments and domestic non-cash payments. While management projects that PayPal is currently capturing less than 1 percent of this market, it is still projecting total payment volume of $581 billion in 2018.

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Management also provided updated guidance for the next three to five years, and the numbers suggest healthy growth and steady expansion. The company raised its annual revenue growth guidance from a previous range of 16 to 17 percent to a new range of 17 to 18 percent. In addition, the company changed the wording of its margins guidance. After previously guiding for “stable-to-growing” margins in coming years, the company now expects them to “expand.”

PayPal also provided brand new earnings per share guidance, telling investors they can expect 20 percent compound annual EPS growth over the next several years. Finally, PayPal said its free cash flow margin is expected to remain above 20 percent over the next three to five years.

Management also said PayPal will have a cash balance of about $15 billion by the end of the year and could return up to half of that cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

Following the event, Stifel analyst Scott Devitt has upgraded PayPal stock from “hold” to “buy” and says the market isn’t fully valuing PayPal’s incredible long-term growth opportunity.

“We believe PayPal is still in the early stages of its transformation from a button/online checkout company to a global payments platform with a sizable addressable market opportunity,” Devitt says.

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“Consumer Choice, which has opened the platform to more partnerships, and the opportunity to reach newer geographies and consumer segments with a full suite of financial services should support a longer-term growth profile as the company extends its competitive edge.”

In addition to the “buy” rating, Stifel has a $99 price target for PYPL stock .

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