Netflix, Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX ) stock is off to a blistering start to 2018, gaining another 55 percent year-to-date. However, analysts say it's not yet time for investors to think about cashing in, and Netflix has several years of potential upside ahead.

Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne has updated his long-term projections for Netflix and is forecasting some exceptional growth over the next four years. Swinburne says Netflix's massive global subscriber base of 120 million users could double by 2022.

[See: 10 Earnings Reports to Watch From Big Tech Stocks .]

If Netflix continues to execute its international strategy of providing high-quality content, producing shows and movies with local appeal and developing relationships with distribution partners around the globe, Swinburne says Netflix stock could be headed to $440 per share in the long term.

"In our $440 bull case, we assume an incremental 600-700 [basis point] penetration of broadband homes versus our base case in both the U.S. and abroad, resulting in a global subscriber forecast of 370 million by [the end of] 2028, or 40 percent of an estimated 920 million-plus broadband homes," Swinburne says.

Still, Swinburne says Netflix's greatest challenge in hitting those numbers will be Asia, where he says the gap between Netflix's core content and the local cultural taste in TV is widest. However, Swinburne says Netflix has clearly demonstrated that its recipe for international expansion is a winner.

[See: 9 Tech ETFs for Growth Investors .]

"Proven success in the U.S. and initial international markets provides a road map to success in new markets, and scale should allow NFLX to leverage content and investments and drive margins," Swinburne says.

Morgan Stanley is projecting Netflix will add a total of 23.4 million subscribers this year. Swinburne is expecting Netflix to report 5 million total net subscriber additions in the fiscal second quarter, including 4 million from international markets.

While Netflix if facing the possibility of increasing competition from Walt Disney Co. ( DIS ) and others, GBH Insights head of technology research Daniel Ives says Netflix has established a massive competitive moat that will make it hard to catch.

[See: 7 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2018 .]

"Our latest survey work with our GBH FAANG Tech Tracker show that the average Netflix user is watching the streaming service 10 hours-plus per week, which is nearly double its nearest competitors Amazon ( AMZN ) and Hulu," Ives says.

Morgan Stanley has an "overweight" rating and $350 price target for Netflix. GBH Insights has a "highly attractive" rating and $375 target for NFLX stock .

Compare Offers

Compare Offers