McDonald's Stock Will Bounce Back

Despite the company reporting some impressive first-quarter numbers to start the year, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD ) stock has run out of steam so far in 2018, declining 4 percent. Investors may be concerned that the fast food giant will have trouble sustaining its recent growth numbers in the long term, but analysts say McDonald's new growth cycle could persist for years to come.

Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Fassler has added McDonald's stock to Goldman's "conviction buy" list and says the stock's 2018 pull-back represents an excellent buying opportunity for investors.

[See: 10 Restaurant Stocks to Watch This Earnings Season .]

The decline has put McDonald's price-earnings ratio back in-line with its long-term average relative to the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Fassler says McDonald's high-single-digit earnings per share growth trajectory is higher than the mid-single-digit EPS growth Goldman is forecasting for the overall S&P 500 in coming years.

He says McDonald's has historically had same-restaurant sales growth cycles of at least five years in duration.

"Our confidence in a re-accelerating comp trajectory comes from a historical basis for 5-plus year comp cycles, as well as moving past January disruptions related to a transition to national value and a normalizing competitive backdrop," Fassler says.

Goldman projects that McDonald's Experience of the Future initiative, which includes remodeling restaurants with a focus on technology such as mobile ordering, kiosk ordering and delivery, will improve same-restaurant sales by 0.8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2018 and throughout 2019.

"In our view, the economics of remodels continues to support the argument for improving momentum, and we also see room for the pace of remodels/EOTF conversion to continue to ramp into 2019," he says.

Bank of America analyst Gregory Francfort says McDonald's emphasis on value has also put the company in position to grow traffic as well.

"McDonald's is in the middle of a transition in its value focus from regional, fractured value to a national platform value, which we believe should attract customers to the brand," Francfort says.

[See: 8 Ways to Satisfy a Craving for Restaurant Stocks .]

"MCD is in a unique position to be able to stay aggressive on value even as industry margins come under pressure."

Bank of America is forecasting full-year EPS growth of 7.6 percent in 2018, 9.7 percent in 2019 and 7.1 percent in 2020.

Goldman Sachs has a "buy" rating and $186 price target for McDonald's. Bank of America has a "buy" rating and $190 target for MCD stock.

Compare Offers

Compare Offers

Leave a Comment